Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 26.102847 28.863600 32.000400 35.876750 40.608960 46.296938 53.812721
2025-03-09 22.010341 25.483896 29.769167 35.610916 43.662730 54.896469 72.921947
2025-03-16 19.273110 23.032632 27.949889 35.171148 46.168730 63.747171 98.378486
2025-03-23 17.343168 21.219656 26.520387 34.782153 48.484368 73.369285 134.771806
2025-03-30 15.925252 19.851478 25.416389 34.534883 50.850842 84.404869 191.851028
2025-04-06 14.648574 18.503778 24.111378 33.648828 51.757935 93.137929 266.165356
2025-04-13 14.180079 18.240600 24.363539 35.351116 58.177689 120.391585 597.996209
2025-04-20 13.369349 17.379033 23.554088 34.999620 60.177017 137.901594 1320.594223
2025-04-27 12.783466 16.796874 23.113932 35.231275 63.626667 165.657745 12620.079588
2025-05-04 12.295143 16.317643 22.780277 35.593725 67.597143 204.118252 NaN
2025-05-11 11.819239 15.816495 22.349660 35.674233 70.900544 249.526348 NaN
2025-05-18 11.302960 15.212510 21.679128 35.134867 72.223175 288.981183 NaN
2025-05-25 10.906185 14.781537 21.286431 35.164872 75.536466 365.989466 NaN
2025-06-01 10.498270 14.306617 20.773271 34.848784 77.660032 453.478037 NaN
2025-06-08 10.109271 13.839792 20.236286 34.399113 79.200073 560.748168 NaN
2025-06-15 9.761023 13.421164 19.755412 34.013214 80.901424 718.165065 NaN
2025-06-22 9.457770 13.061469 19.357103 33.770188 83.159763 990.390086 NaN
2025-06-29 9.107261 12.604572 18.742791 32.914422 82.502828 1175.767103 NaN
2025-07-06 9.055611 12.652759 19.097543 34.552964 94.219103 5922.222358 NaN
2025-07-13 8.799435 12.334637 18.713278 34.214188 96.248189 30184.795613 NaN
2025-07-20 8.615781 12.133748 18.546617 34.436995 101.595268 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.455016 11.964865 18.431245 34.785737 108.163549 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.278831 11.760432 18.229322 34.863169 113.339502 NaN NaN